IED BOMBS DOWN IN IRAQ BUT UP IN AFGHANISTAN

Senator John McCain, the likely Republican candidate for POTUS, has an expression for it. He calls it "whack-a-mole."
What McCain is referring to is how when U.S. forces seem to be getting the upper hand on IED (Improvised Explosive Devices) in Iraq they pop in Afghanistan.

This has been the MO (Modus Operandi) of the insurgents and Al Qaeda since the U.S. invaded and occupied both Iraq and Afghanistan. Violence is putdown in one area only to pop up in another area.

A study release by Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) spells out what is working and what isn't working in the ongoing effort to stop IED attacks.

It is worth reading.

Bill Corcoran, editor CORKSPHERE http://corksphere.blogspot.com/, the blog that brings readers the latest developments in the Iraq and Afghanistan war zones.

Improvised Bombs: Down in Iraq, Up in Afghanistan; Tech Barely a Factor

By Sharon Weinberger February 14, 2008 1:40:00 PMCategories: Bomb Squad

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/ieds-down-in-ir.html
There's good news in Iraq: improvised explosive device (IED) attacks against coalition forces in Iraq have dropped dramatically over the last year. Not only is the use of IEDs dropping off, but more IEDs are being found before they go off, and more Iraqis are alerting forces of possible attacks.

That's all good news, but as noted in the just released Fiscal Year 2007 Annual Report of the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO), while IEDs are declining in Iraq, "the opposite trend has been observed in Afghanistan." The report notes, "In that theater, an emboldened, increasingly aggressive enemy has increased the use of IEDs. The number of IEDs employed against U.S. forces in FY07 reached an all-time high, more than doubling over the last half of the fiscal year."

More interesting are the reasons cited for this turnaround. It's not a silver bullet technology, or frankly, anything specifically the JIEDDO has done (though no doubt it's contributed in some areas). Rather, the report points to four major factors:

1) "The decision of many local faction to support coalition force efforts."
2) "The sustained presence of coalition forces throughout the Baghdad security zones that have greatly reduced the monthly number of IED incidents in Baghdad."
3) "The success of numerous locally focused brigade and regimental-level operations against networks."
4) "Relentless efforts to disrupt the event chain which enables activities."

If operational tactics dealt the biggest blow to the IED threat, how, then, has JIEDDO contributed to the drop-off? Well, protective capabilities, which JIEDDO has supported, have played a role, the report notes, so too has better training. Also, JIEDDO has been involved in a number of efforts to disrupt IED networks (cited above as a contributing factor to the overall decrease). The reports notes that over the last year, insurgents have had to employ six IEDs to bring about one coalition casualty. On the flip side, IEDs that do go off have become more lethal, demonstrating how insurgents are adapting. But the report makes clear that it's military operations that have played the greatest role in this turnaround.

What hasn't worked? Well, nifty gimmickry doesn't always pan out. JIEDDO says over the past year it's canceled Alexis and Electra-C, systems that emitted wave forms to pre-detonate IEDs. They interfered with the counter-IED jammers. That's not good. Warlock Dragon, which uses high-power microwaves against IEDs, also ended up being something of a dud. Despite promising tests, it didn't work well in the field (because insurgents were using countermeasures, JIEDDO says).

Interestingly, although the report appears to place heavy emphasis on the success of things like attacking the IED network, counter-IED systems still gets the lion's share of JIEDDO funding ($2.57 billion out of $4.77 billion) for fiscal 2008. This could simply be because technology is cash-intensive, while efforts to attack the network are not. But, it's still an interesting data point.